This column explores AIs’ progress in mastering poker as well as how it can be a tool to help humans improve. Join us as we investigate the evolving relationship between artificial intelligence and poker and how AI can aid human gameplay.
In this poker quiz offered by our friends at LearnWPT, you have T❤️9❤️ in an online tournament. Click here and take the quiz yourself and read the LearnWPT Pro’s answer before proceeding below. Do that now!
The setup is simple: with the blinds at 1,000/2,000 and a 2000 big blind ante, it folds to you, you bet 5,500, and the Hijack calls you. After a flop of K♦️9♣️4♣, the action is on you. Do you Check or C-Bet?
First, before I share what AI would do in this hand, how did I do? I very much got it wrong (I’m an amateur player). I usually C-Bet here because I was the initial aggressor, and I want to flush out hands that could improve on later streets. I was also taught to bet and “see where you are” in these situations. The LearnWPT pro recommends checking for pot control, and a solver says you should check here 80% of the time. My comments are in blue below.
ChatGPT 3.5: Incorrectly recommends a C-Bet. Its logic is similar to mine.
ChatGPT 3.5 wrote: “In this specific situation with T❤️9❤️ on the K♦️9♣4♣ flop, I would choose to continuation bet. Here’s why:
- Protection and Value: WhileT❤️9❤️ is not a very strong hand, it does have some value with middle pair. Making a continuation bet can protect your hand from overcards and weaker hands that might improve on later streets. It can also extract value from weaker hands like small pocket pairs, draws, or hands with lower kicker cards.
- Information Gathering: A continuation bet can help you gather information about your opponent’s hand. If your opponent folds, you win the pot without a showdown, which is a positive outcome. If your opponent calls or raises, it provides insight into the strength of their hand, helping you make more informed decisions on future streets.
- Balancing Your Range: By occasionally betting your medium-strength hands like this one, you balance your range. This means your opponents won’t be able to easily predict the strength of your hand based on your betting patterns, making it more difficult for them to exploit you.
- Control of the Pot: Taking the initiative with a continuation bet gives you some control over the size of the pot. This can be valuable in case you decide to continue with the hand on later streets or if you need to fold to aggression.
However, it’s important to be mindful of your bet sizing. A smaller bet, around 1/3 to 1/2 of the pot, is often appropriate for a continuation bet in this situation. This allows you to protect your hand and gather information without committing too many chips if your opponent decides to play back at you.
CLAUDE AI 2.0: Incorrectly recommends to C-Bet. Claude’s reason seems reasonable to me! I love how it wants to “start building a story.”
Claude wrote: “Okay, let’s think through this poker scenario step-by-step:
- Pre-flop I open-raised to 5,500 from middle position with T♥9♥. One player called.
- The flop comes K♦9♣4♣, giving me middle pair and an open-ended straight draw. This is a decent flop for my hand.
- With no reads on my opponent, I don’t have much information to go on. However, I was the preflop aggressor so I likely have the range advantage here. (LearnWPT says its solver shows that the Hijack actually has a small range advantage but the flop hits both ranges.)
- I’d elect to continuation bet here, likely around half pot or 7,000. This accomplishes a few things:
- It allows me to potentially take down the pot right there if my opponent missed the flop. (I agree!)
- It allows me to get value from hands I’m currently beating like pocket pairs below 9s, suited connectors that missed, etc.
- It maintains aggression and makes my hand look stronger. Checking could make it seem like I missed.
- It gives me a chance to take the betting lead and gather information based on my opponent’s action. I can then decide on the turn.
The main reasons I’d choose to c-bet this flop are to protect equity in my hand against hands I’m currently beating and to gather information. With no reads I want to start building a story. I can check-call later if my c-bet gets raised. But leading out seems preferable with my current hand and position.”
GPT 4.0: Correctly recommends checking! GPT 4 sure seems to take into account factors that ChatGPT 3.5 and Claude did not, including the stage of the tournament, optimizing the expected value, showdown value, and board texture. Damn interesting.
GPT 4.0 wrote: “My decision in this scenario would be influenced by factors like the stage of the tournament, my stack size in relation to the blinds and antes, and my general playing style. I would lean towards a strategy that optimizes my expected value (EV) given all available information. Considering we are in the middle stages of a tournament (given the blind levels), and holding a mid-strength hand with middle pair, here’s what I might do:
Check:
I would likely check in this situation. Here’s why:
- Hand Strength: With a middle pair and a backdoor flush draw, our hand has showdown value but isn’t strong enough to build a large pot.
- Board Texture: The board is somewhat coordinated with two clubs and a King. It’s likely to hit a portion of the caller’s range (flush draws, straight draws, Kx hands). (True)
- Information Gathering: Since I have no reads on this opponent yet, checking allows me to gather more information based on their action. A bet from the opponent can indicate strength, while a check can indicate either a draw, a weak made hand, or a complete miss.
- Pot Control: By checking, I can keep the pot size manageable. This is beneficial because it mitigates the risk of losing a large pot with a mid-strength hand and gives me room to navigate post-flop play effectively. (LearnWPT pro’s main reason to check.)
- Inducing Bluffs: If the opponent is aggressive, checking could induce a bluff, and I could either call down or make a move on a later street depending on how the board runs out. (This doesn’t make much sense to me.)
The Plan Moving Forward:
If the opponent checks back: I can be more confident that my pair of nines is ahead, and depending on the turn card, decide to either lead out or check again.- If the opponent bets: I would evaluate the size of their bet and try to deduce what it says about their hand strength. If the bet is small, I might call and reevaluate on the turn. If it’s a large bet, I would be more inclined to fold unless I have specific reads (which, in this scenario, I don’t have yet).
Flexibility and adaptability are key. Every move provides valuable information, and every action of the opponent is a piece of the puzzle that helps me make informed decisions on later streets. So, while I’d opt for a check here, I’m always ready to adapt my strategy based on new information as the hand progresses.
We will see if GPT 4.0’s correct answer is the real thing in future hand reviews. I did rerun it with GPT 4 in a new session, and it again picked the correct answer. Is GPT 4.0 a tool you can use to study? We will see!
— mindwise
