This column explores AIs’ progress in mastering poker as well as how it can be a tool to help humans improve. Join us as we investigate the evolving relationship between artificial intelligence and poker and how AI can aid human gameplay.
For this week’s column, we again turn to LearnWPT with an interesting poker quiz. Click here and take the quiz yourself and read the LearnWPT Pro’s answer before proceeding below.
One reason we selected this quiz question was because it seemed a little more straightforward than last week’s quiz. Would that help AI pick the correct answer?
The LearnWPT pro recommends calling two all-ins! My comments are in blue below.
Bard: Correctly recommends Calling.
Bard wrote:
DECISION:
The Big Blind’s all-in shove is a significant bet, representing over half of their remaining chips. This suggests that they have a strong hand, potentially a set or a straight. However, given that the flop is very draw-heavy, it’s also possible that they are trying to steal the pot with a weaker hand like a pair or even just high cards.
The UTG player’s call of the all-in bet is more difficult to interpret. They could either have a strong hand that beats the Big Blind’s hand or they could be trying to bluff, hoping that the Big Blind is overbetting a weaker hand.
Given the uncertainty about the Big Blind’s and UTG player’s hands, the decision of whether or not to call the all-in bet is a close one. However, there are a few factors that suggest that calling is the correct decision:
- Your hand is very strong. You have two pair with a top kicker, which is a very good hand on this flop.
- You have a lot of chips. With 43.5BBs, you can afford to call the all-in bet and still have a healthy stack of chips. (This was one of my main reasons to call.)
- The pot is large. The pot is already worth over 200,000 chips, and it could get even bigger if the UTG player also calls. This means that you have a lot to gain by calling the all-in bet.
Therefore, I would call the all-in bet. You have a strong hand, you have a lot of chips, and the pot is large. These factors suggest that you have a good chance of winning this hand and adding a significant amount of chips to your stack.
CLAUDE AI 2.0: Incorrectly recommends folding!
Claude wrote:
Here is how I would analyze this poker situation and what I would likely do:
The flop comes A♠Q♠K♣, giving me top pair (kings) and an open-ended straight flush draw. (Can you fold a straight flush draw? I can’t think of a lot of spots where I would, especially if I had chips left if I lose.) When UTG bets out for 30k, I decide to just call to keep their bluffing range wide. However, when the BB shoves for 10.5BBs, this is most likely not a bluff since they have such little behind.
When UTG shoves over the top as well, it’s a little suspicious that they would get so aggressive with just one pair or a weak ace. It’s more likely they either have a big ace (AQ, AA, AK) for trips or a better set.
Given I’m in good chip position (43.5BB) and close to the money, I don’t think it’s worth risking my tournament life without at least a flush draw. (Clearly Claude is losing track of the hand, not good.) Even if I hit my straight, I’d only have around 25BBs left and could still bust before the cash.
Therefore, even though the pot odds make it tempting to call, I would most likely FOLD in this spot, live to fight another day, and look for a better spot given the big stack I still retain. My tournament life and position is too valuable to risk without at least a flush draw against the all in stacks.
GPT 4.0: Correctly recommends calling!
GPT 4.0 wrote:
Given the situation, I would recommend calling. Here’s the rationale behind this decision:
- Hand Strength: You have a pair of Kings and a strong flush draw. This gives you a substantial number of outs. Even if you’re currently behind, you have a good chance to improve on the turn or the river. There are nine spades left in the deck that complete your flush, and potentially three more Kings (assuming no one else holds a King), giving you a total of 12 outs, which is a strong position in poker.
- Pot Odds: After the big blind’s all-in and the UTG’s call, the pot is significantly large. Your required call represents a fraction of this pot, offering you favorable pot odds. In poker, especially in tournament play, making decisions that are mathematically correct in the long run is crucial.
- Tournament Strategy: While it’s close to the bubble and preserving a stack is important, the potential payoff here is significant. If you win this hand, you would eliminate two players and amass a large stack, positioning you well for a deep run and a potential top finish. In tournaments, especially large field ones, building a big stack is key for a chance at the top prizes. (This is very important. Do you want a minimum cash or a chance to win it all?)
- Risk Assessment: The risk of losing a significant portion of your stack is there, but not crippling. You won’t be out of the tournament if you lose this hand; you’ll still have around 20BBs left, which, while not ideal, still gives you some playability.
- Reading the Situation: The UTG player’s min-raise and continuation bet might show strength, but it doesn’t necessarily indicate a hand that has you beat. The big blind’s all-in could be a variety of hands, given their short stack and potential desperation.
In summary, while there is a risk involved, the potential reward of significantly increasing your chip stack and the strength of your hand make calling the more aggressive but potentially rewarding play. In tournament poker, taking calculated risks at key moments is often what separates the top finishers from the rest.
So far, GPT 4.0 is 2/2; Bard is 1/1; and Claude is struggling at 0/2. Next week, we’ll upgrade to Claude’s 2.1 AI and see if that helps.
Can AI help us improve by analyzing our own hand histories? We’ll keep exploring that question as we move forward.
— mindwise
